Mika Koivisto is a Helsinki-based statistical modelling lead working at a Nordic
analytics firm. We spoke about the value of learning from failure, the role of peer
review, and why honest reflection drives technical progress in volatility
forecasting. His experience shows that documenting and sharing mistakes is as
important as celebrating successes.
What does a typical day look like for you as a statistical modelling lead in
Helsinki?
A lot of my time is spent reviewing models that didn’t perform as expected. I
work closely with analysts to unpack why a volatility forecast went wrong,
documenting every assumption and decision point. We treat each failure as an
opportunity to improve—sometimes the fix is technical, sometimes it’s in the way
we interpret the data. My day is a mix of analysis, documentation, and open
discussion.
What are the most rewarding and challenging aspects of your role?
The highlight is when a model failure leads to a breakthrough—when a mistake
uncovers a hidden relationship or prompts a change in process. The most
difficult part is getting everyone comfortable with admitting errors. It’s a
cultural shift, but it’s essential for technical growth. The best teams are
those that share their failures as freely as their successes.
How does machine learning impact your approach to model failures?
Machine learning has made volatility forecasting more powerful, but also more
opaque. When a model fails, we spend extra time tracing through its logic and
retraining on new data. Peer review has become critical—we need fresh eyes to
spot issues that even the original developer missed. The process is slower, but
the models end up stronger.
What advice do you have for practitioners starting out in volatility modelling?
For those new to the field: don’t hide mistakes. Document them, discuss them,
and invite feedback. Most technical growth happens after something fails, not
when everything runs smoothly. Stay open to criticism—it’s your best resource.
How has your perspective on model critique and improvement changed over time?
Earlier in my career, I thought mistakes meant weakness. Now, I see them as the
main drivers of progress. The field moves quickly, but only those willing to
reflect and adapt will keep up. Peer learning and honest critique are now at the
core of my process.
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